A new study led by the National Decommissioning Centre, in collaboration with the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA), shows that Scotland's £25 billion nuclear decommissioning programme could deliver significant long-term economic and social benefits at both national and local levels over the next 90 years and beyond.
The research has highlighted potential economy-wide gains in employment, skills development, household income and consumption offering a positive outlook for communities impacted by the decommissioning process. The study has helped inform politicians and key policy makers on the opportunities and has contributed to the formation of a cross-party committee on nuclear decommissioning in the Scottish Parliament.
As part of the wider project, the University of Aberdeen’s Just Transition Lab carried out a complementary study to build clear linkages on the broader debates on the Just Transition and report on how local communities in Caithness view the decommissioning process at Dounreay.
As one of the UK’s key nuclear decommissioning sites, Dounreay plays a crucial role in the NDA’s long-term efforts to safely decommission early nuclear facilities. It has been a stable employer since it was established in the 1950s but the decommissioning process brings uncertainty for the surrounding communities about the future.
This part of the study found that there are significant impacts of winding down the anchor institution central to high-skilled and high-income employment in the region and that there is a need for a Just Transition in the area. The report found that there is a lack of clarity on how this will be achieved.
Interviews were carried out with residents and stakeholders in Caithness and North Sutherland directly impacted by decommissioning at Dounreay. The responses were that the issues are compounded by underinvestment in essential infrastructure, rural depopulation, and remoteness. At the same time, the presence of the skilled workforce as well as the increased interest in the region’s renewable energy resources means that decommissioning can be a driver for building future skills and capacities for economic diversification and local resilience.
Just Transition Lab researchers examined the policy framework of a Just Transition, focusing on how the decommissioning processes align with national and regional visions for a net zero focused economy, how the process of change is engaging with community aspirations for the local economy, and how the policy drivers for a Just Transition are recreated in a remote rural community that faces significant change.
The researchers also conducted key informant interviews to examine the impacts of decommissioning at Dounreay and the increasing onshore and offshore wind production in Caithness on the local community.
The findings underscore the necessity for a timely and coordinated approach to regional socio-economic planning in Caithness and North Sutherland. A key aspect of the study is the development of a Just Transition indicator framework tailored to Caithness and North Sutherland. Despite some uncertainties, stakeholders view the decommissioning process as a stabilising force for the region, highlighting its potential to mitigate socio-economic disruptions.
Dr Daria Shapovalova from the Just Transition Lab said: “This research provides a much-needed framework for planning a Just Transition in regions undergoing significant change. It’s a crucial step toward ensuring that local communities are not left behind in the shift to a sustainable, low-carbon economy. Just Transition context means not only the continuation of employment in the energy sector but also wider community impacts in health and wellbeing, housing, transport and more.”
Malcolm Stone from the National Decommissioning Centre said: “Whilst it is recognised that the energy sector is undergoing a transition, how the transition will be a ‘just’ one for society is understood less. By considering the impact of decommissioning at the Dounreay facility in Caithness, this far sighted research commissioned by the NDA provides valuable evidence to aid decision makers and the wider community in understanding the complexities of the energy transition, highlighting opportunities for employment, economic diversification and societal impacts.”
Heather Barton NDA said: “It has been great to engage with another area of the University of Aberdeen, the Just Transition Lab, through our partnership with the NDC. A real strength of working with the NDC is that there are numerous areas where we can collaborate to achieve our goals of decommissioning the UK’s nuclear sites safely, securely, sustainably and cost effectively. This study will help inform politicians and policy makers on key economic development opportunities and enable discussions around support for communities including skills and training.”